Summary and Analysis of the Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Failabut Some Don't: Based on the Book by Nate Silver (Smart Summaries)

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publisher: Worth Books (May 9, 2017)
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isbn: 1504046749, 978-1504046749,
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He,,shows,,how,,,at,,the,,rate,,that,,carbon,,dioxide,,is,,accumulating,,,a,,single,,decade,,of,,flat,,temperatures,,is,,hardly,,invalidatingThese,,,different,,,topics,,,illustrate,,,different,,,statistical,,,principlesView,,all,,New,,York,,Times,,newslettersMann,,,criticized,,,the,,,book,,,for,,,analyzing,,,the,,,"hard,,,science",,,physical,,,phenomena,,,of,,,climate,,,trends,,,with,,,the,,,same,,,approach,,,as,,,used,,,to,,,analyze,,,the,,,social,,,phenomena,,,of,,,voter,,,preferences,,,,which,,,he,,,characterized,,,as,,,"laden,,,with,,,subjective,,,and,,,untestable,,,assumptions".[20]He,,is,,modest,,about,,his,,accomplishments,,,but,,he,,achieved,,a,,high,,profile,,when,,he,,created,,a,,brilliant,,and,,innovative,,computer,,program,,for,,forecasting,,the,,performance,,of,,baseball,,players,,,and,,later,,a,,system,,for,,predicting,,the,,outcome,,of,,political,,races^,,,Spanish,,,edition:,,,ISBN,,,978-8499423081Does,,,he,,,make,,,that,,,point,,,in,,,the,,,book?,,,Obviously,,,you,,,shouldn't,,,use,,,a,,,95%,,,test,,,when,,,your,,,prior,,,is,,,that,,,low,,,,but,,,I,,,don't,,,think,,,most,,,experimenters,,,actually,,,know,,,why,,,a,,,95%,,,confidence,,,level,,,is,,,usedEvents,,,Guide,,,Television,,,Theater,,,Video:,,,Arts,,,Living,,,Automobiles,,,Crossword,,,Food,,,Education,,,Fashion,,,&,,,Style,,,Health,,,Jobs,,,Magazine,,,N.Y.CWhat's,,Next,,Loading"Prediction,,,is,,,difficult,,,for,,,us,,,for,,,the,,,same,,,reason,,,that,,,it,,,is,,,so,,,important:,,,it,,,is,,,where,,,objective,,,and,,,subjective,,,reality,,,intersect.",,,You,,,would,,,probably,,,need,,,to,,,be,,,a,,,stat,,,geek,,,to,,,drive,,,around,,,with,,,that,,,on,,,the,,,back,,,of,,,your,,,car,,,,but,,,it,,,might,,,just,,,fit,,,if,,,the,,,lettering,,,were,,,smallAn,1970,investment,of,$10k,in,S&P,500,would,have,yielded,$63k,in,profit,in,2009,,but,if,one,adopted,the,strategy,of,pulling,money,out,when,the,market,dropped,by,25%,and,putting,it,back,in,when,it,had,recovered,to,90%,of,its,earlier,price,,the,profit,would,only,be,$18kIt,,,suggests,,,the,,,possibility,,,of,,,reducing,,,uncertainty,,,in,,,situations,,,that,,,seem,,,hopelessly,,,complicated,,,to,,,analyze,,,,by,,,averaging,,,over,,,the,,,predictions,,,made,,,under,,,different,,,assumptionsMain,Points,The,deluge,of,data,available,in,the,modern,world,has,exacerbated,the,problem,of,people,perceiving,patterns,where,none,exist,,and,overfitting,predictive,models,to,past,data

Uh,,,,what?,,,Is,,,this,,,meant,,,to,,,suggest,,,that,,,there,,,were,,,no,,,religious,,,wars,,,before,,,the,,,printing,,,press?,,,Reply,,,Permalink,,,Comment,,,author:,,,[deleted],,,13,,,July,,,2013,,,06:23:50PM,,,12,,,points,,,[+],,,(1,,,child),,,Comment,,,author:,,,[deleted],,,13,,,July,,,2013,,,06:23:50PM,,,12,,,points,,,[-],,,Nope,,,,just,,,ambiguity,,,in,,,EnglishOne,,,can,,,use,,,the,,,frequency,,,of,,,earthquakes,,,of,,,a,,,given,,,magnitude,,,to,,,predict,,,the,,,frequency,,,of,,,earthquakes,,,of,,,a,,,higher,,,magnitude,,,(even,,,without,,,having,,,many,,,data,,,points)In,2013,,an,edition,was,published,in,Romanian,by,Publica,press:,Semnalul,i,zgomotul:,de,ce,att,de,multe,predicii,dau,gre,-,pe,cnd,altele,reuesc.[14],In,May,2014,,an,edition,was,published,in,Czech:,Signl,a,umSilver,,,illustrates,,,his,,,dos,,,and,,,donts,,,through,,,a,,,series,,,of,,,interesting,,,essays,,,that,,,examine,,,how,,,predictions,,,are,,,made,,,in,,,fields,,,including,,,chess,,,,baseball,,,,weather,,,forecasting,,,,earthquake,,,analysis,,,and,,,politicsAfter,,the,,first,,plane,,hit,,,the,,revised,,probability,,of,,a,,terror,,attack,,comes,,out,,at,,38%It's,,not,,so,,hard,,to,,predict,,a,,stock,,market,,bubble^,Full,German,Title:,Die,Berechnung,der,Zukunft:,Warum,die,meisten,Prognosen,falsch,sind,und,manche,trotzdem,zutreffen 5d8a9798ff

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